Dijkstra H.A. Nonlinear climate dynamics (Cambridge; New York, 2013). - ОГЛАВЛЕНИЕ / CONTENTS
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ОбложкаDijkstra H.A. Nonlinear climate dynamics. - Cambridge; New York: Cambridge univ. press, 2013. - xii, 357 p.: ill. - Bibliogr.: p.337-352. - Ind.: p.355-357. - Пер. загл.: Нелинейная динамика климата. - ISBN 978-0-521-87917-0
 

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Оглавление / Contents
 
   Preface ..................................................... ix
   Acknowledgements ............................................ xi

1  Climate Variability .......................................... 1
   1.1  The observational database .............................. 2
   1.2  Phenomena: temporal and spatial scales .................. 4
   1.3  The climate system ...................................... 6
   1.4  The stochastic dynamical systems framework .............. 7
   1.5  Overview of the book .................................... 9
2  Deterministic Dynamical Systems ............................. 11
   2.1  Finite dimensional dynamical systems ................... 11
   2.2  Stability theory and transient behaviour ............... 13
   2.3  Bifurcation theory: fixed points ....................... 19
   2.4  Bifurcation theory: periodic orbits .................... 25
   2.5  Beyond simple behaviour: attractors .................... 28
3  Introduction to Stochastic Calculus ......................... 35
   3.1  Random variables ....................................... 35
   3.2  Stochastic processes ................................... 38
   3.3  Stochastic calculus .................................... 40
   3.4  Stochastic differential equations ...................... 45
   3.5  The Fokker-Planck equations ............................ 51
   3.6  Numerical solutions of SDEs ............................ 58
4  Stochastic Dynamical Systems ................................ 64
   4.1  Nonautonomous dynamical systems ........................ 64
   4.2  Random dynamical systems ............................... 67
   4.3  Stochastic bifurcations ................................ 77
5  Analysing Data from Stochastic Dynamical Systems ............ 83
   5.1  Classical univariate methods ........................... 83
   5.2  Hypothesis testing and significance .................... 89
   5.3  Bivariate and multivariate analysis .................... 93
   5.4  Nonstationary methods: wavelets ....................... 102
   5.5  Nonlinear methods ..................................... 103
6  The Climate Modelling Hierarchy ............................ 116
   6.1  Model traits: scales and processes .................... 117
   6.2  Scientific questions and model choice ................. 123
   6.3  Deterministic versus stochastic models ................ 124
   6.4  Model error ........................................... 128
7  The North Atlantic Oscillation ............................. 131
   7.1  Midlatitude atmospheric variability ................... 131
   7.2  Minimal model ......................................... 137
   7.3  Variability in conceptual models ...................... 139
   7.4  Beyond conceptual models .............................. 149
   7.5  Regime transitions and metastable states .............. 160
   7.6  Synthesis ............................................. 163
8  El Nino Variability ........................................ 167
   8.1  Phenomena ............................................. 167
   8.2  A minimal model ....................................... 170
   8.3  The ENSO mode ......................................... 177
   8.4  Excitation of the ENSO mode ........................... 185
   8.5  ENSO's phase locking to the seasonal cycle ............ 190
   8.6  The irregularity of El Nino ........................... 192
   8.7  Synthesis ............................................. 200
9  Multidecadal Variability ................................... 202
   9.1  Introduction .......................................... 202
   9.2  Stability of the thermally driven ocean flows ......... 206
   9.3  Excitation of the AMO mode ............................ 213
   9.4  Dynamical mechanisms of excitation .................... 217
   9.5  Context of the AMO: two time scales? .................. 225
   9.6  Synthesis ............................................. 227
10 Dansgaard-Oeschger Events .................................. 231
   10.1 Phenomena ............................................. 231
   10.2 The meridional overturning circulation ................ 233
   10.3 Sensitivity of the MOC: hysteresis .................... 236
   10.4 Variability of the MOC: oscillations .................. 240
   10.5 Effects of noise: stochastic resonance ................ 248
   10.6 Climate models ........................................ 263
   10.7 Synthesis ............................................. 265
11 The Pleistocene Ice Ages ................................... 270
   11.1 Phenomena ............................................. 270
   11.2 The'null hypothesis': Milankovitch theory ............. 272
   11.3 Potentially important feedbacks ....................... 274
   11.4 Basic theories of interglacial-glacial cycles ......... 282
   11.5 The role of the carbon cycle .......................... 293
   11.6 Synthesis ............................................. 299
12 Predictability ............................................. 301
   12.1 The prediction problem ................................ 302
   12.2 Concepts of predictability ............................ 307
   12.3 Behaviour of nearby trajectories ...................... 314
   12.4 Data assimilation ..................................... 324
   12.5 Outlook ............................................... 334
   
   References ................................................. 337
   Copyright Acknowledgements ................................. 353
   Index ...................................................... 355

   Colour plates follow page .................................. 180


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